Field Note
Why Low Drawdown Can Be a Trap
Why smooth historical drawdown does not automatically mean robust behavior.
Low historical drawdown is attractive, but it can be an artifact of one favorable path.
A strategy can avoid drawdown historically because the dangerous regime did not occur in the required order.
Robustness asks whether drawdown remains controlled across accepted alternative worlds.
Practical implication
If the claim depends on one curve, run a Reality Check before assigning trust.
If the claim depends on one curve, run a Reality Check before assigning trust.
The backtest is the pitch. AntiOverfit is the check.
Use public evidence or apply AntiOverfit directly to the EA.